quinta-feira, 20 de dezembro de 2007

THE CORRECTIVE PATTERN IS ALREADY HERE, YOU JUST DON'T KNOW IT YET!

Yes, the title is somewhat to catch up your attention because your are going to need a lot of it in the next quarters.

Some messy stuffs are starting to show up in the markets but I'm much more concerned about those that are still to come. I just don't know - a few folks may know - from where it is going to come.

But I have some suspects, stay tuned... ;-)

sexta-feira, 14 de dezembro de 2007

COMPLACIÊNCIA

Estava a ler umas notícias passadas sobre o Deutsche Bank e no fim pensei cá para mim: ao nível a que a complaciência chegou!


Vejamos a notícia:

"Lucro do Deutsche Bank cresceu 31% no terceiro trimestre

O maior banco alemão anunciou hoje que no terceiro trimestre deste ano o seu resultado líquido atingiu os 1,6 mil milhões de euros, mais 31% do que um ano antes.

Cristina Barreto

Em comunicado, o Deutsche Bank explica que este resultado reflecte o impacto positivo de benefícios fiscais proporcionado por items extraordinários. Pelo que o lucro antes de impostos baixou 19% para os 1,4 mil milhões de euros, face a igual período do ano passado.
"

Humm, receitas fiscais. Deve ser aquilo a que chamam em Inglês, "deferred taxes"...

"As receitas da instituição alemã totalizaram os 5,1 mil milhões de euros no trimestre em análise, o que representa uma redução de 20% relativamente ao exercício de 2006.

O Deutsche Bank informou também, em linha com as expectativas avançadas inicialmente, perdas de 2,16 mil milhões de euros relacionadas com a crise no mercado de crédito de alto risco nos Estados Unidos ('subprime').

O presidente do Conselho de Administração do banco alemão, Dr. Josef Ackermann, refere no comunicado que "o terceiro trimestre de 2007 foi um período de excepcional turbulência nos mercados financeiros. Na banca de investimento, a nossa performance foi significativamente afectada por este cenário, mas no entanto, o comportamento estável dos nossos negócios foi bom e repetimos os ganhos de alguns dos nossos investimentos recentes".

Como tal, estou satisfeito a anunciar que, apesar de tudo, os nossos negócios atingiram um resultado satisfatório neste trimestre", acrescenta no documento.
"

Mas era aqui que eu queria chegar.

LOL, excepcional turbulência? Uma dica para o Sr. Ackermann:

Ó Ackermann, em termos de turbulência ainda não viste nada homem! Olha que a procissão ainda vai no adro...


quinta-feira, 6 de dezembro de 2007

NO BUBLLE-BURSTING IN 2006!



"No Bubble-Bursting in 2006
By : Jim Woodard

No bubble-bursting is in sight for real estate sales in this new year of 2006. This is now expected to be the second best year in history for residential property sales, according to analysts at the National Association of Realtors. “Home sales are coming down from the mountain peak, but they will level-out at a high plateau – a plateau that is higher than previous peaks in the housing cycle,” said David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist. “This transition to a more normal and balanced market is a good thing.”

Even though mortgage rates have edged downward in recent weeks, they will generally trend upward during the year, probably to about 6.6 percent for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage, NAR predicts. Existing home sales, expected to reach about 7.1 million units in 2005 (when final figures are available), will probably decline a bit in 2006 – perhaps by about 3.7 percent to a volume of 6.84 million units. New home sales will be about 1.29 million units in 2005 and will probably drop by 4.8 percent to 1.23 million units this year. That would make this year the second best on record for new home sales.

“The housing market still is fundamentally healthy,” said Dave Wilson, president of the National Association of Home Builders. “Many builders sense some tapering off of buyer demand because of resistance to high prices and rising interest rates, and many companies have begun offering certain incentives in order to maintain their sales and production.” Confidence of home builders during December slid from its summer peak, yet remained well within the positive range, according to NAHB.

Thomas Stevens, NAR president, made this comment: “Housing has always been the soundest investment for most families. As the old saying goes, homeownership beats the heck out of a drawer full of rent receipts.

Copyright 2006 TheLowQuote"

Crise Imobilária?



Nããã...

"Publication: Mortgage Banking
Publication Date: 01-JUN-05
Delivery: Immediate Online Access
Author:
Full Article:
THE GOOD NEWS: THERE IS NO NATIONAL housing price bubble. On that much leading housing economists agreed--but that is where the consensus ended.

The bad news: Experts at the Washington. D.C.-based National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB's) Spring Construction Forecast Conference in May in Washington, D.C., could not come together on ruling out the possibility of a sudden, dramatic fall in home prices in some pockets of the country.

While talk of an impending house price bubble has been overblown for the last several years while the housing market posted record sales and starts, new concern about the direction of home prices dominated talk among NAHB's panel of experts throughout this recent conference.

The inability to pinpoint where all of the current housing demand is coming from, coupled with reports from builders of residential real estate speculators, is "disquieting," said David Seiders. NAHB chief economist.

Seiders related reports from some of the nation's larger home builders, who, he said, are concerned about speculators scooping up large numbers of homes and the potential impact on the local real estate market should investors decide to unload those homes en masse.

One cannot automatically conclude that a price bubble is imminent or probable because of the presence of speculators in the real estate market. But it could suggest the sizable increase in home prices relative to incomes is based on a dramatic increase in investment activity, said Thomas Lawler, senior vice president of risk policy at Fannie Mae.

"You cannot say we're going to have a [housing price] bust. You cannot say that," said Lawler. "You could say the probability of a bust occurring in certain parts of the country has risen sharply." In fact, he said, traditional data does not allow for a definitive forecasting of a housing bubble until after the fact.

"It is absolutely true that conditions in the housing market in parts of the country, not most of the country, mirror past conditions that preceded busts," said Lawler. "But in almost all cases, those busts were associated with a regional economic downturn."

In addition to increased speculative behavior, Lawler noted concern about similar patterns within the last year that were also visible during the late 1980s, before the last real estate bust.

Lawler's concerns include unrealistically high consumer expectations for home price appreciation; creative, riskier financing to surmount home affordability concerns; and much higher adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share than interest rates and spreads would have suggested.

James Glassman, managing director and senior policy strategist with J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., New York, noted most housing markets in the country are not seeing the type of real-estate boom that buyers and sellers on the coasts are experiencing.

Glassman pointed out California as a real estate market "with issues," as well as Las Vegas and South Florida as markets with potential problems on the horizon.

Glassman disputed the notion of excessive home prices, citing a lack of evidence in income and real estate trends. Instead, he said, prices are catching up to a "reasonable benchmark of real rates of return" following a lag in home prices throughout the 1990s.

"Not everybody is seeing the same exact thing as you are in the really hot real-estate markets," he said. "Worry if you want to. I would take most worries with a grain of salt, and just get back to business."--C.W."

terça-feira, 4 de dezembro de 2007

The bull lobby is working to catch you!

After reading the following CNNMoney article (Here's the full article: http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/29/news/companies/bc.apfn.freddiemac.stock.ap/index.htm), I cannot pass without making some comments about it:


"Big mortgage finance company Freddie Mac on Thursday set a price of $25 a share for the $6 billion in special stock it is selling to help shore up its finances amid strong investor demand for the stock."

LOL, strong investor demand for this loosing money machine?
...

"The nation's No. 2 buyer and guarantor of home loans lost more than $2 billion in the third quarter as more borrowers missed payments on their home loans. Freddie Mac also said it had decided, in light of the robust demand for its special cash-raising offering, to make all 240 million shares of preferred stock not convertible to common stock."

Read again. Robust demand, strong demand...? This must be that kind of demand we see in the IPO's: ask 10 thousands shares to get 1 thousand shares, they use to say...

And with the greater percentage of ARM mortgages set to reset in the first half of 2008, I would rather expect those losses to narrow...

...

"It was five times oversubscribed, according to the company."We are very pleased by the strong investor interest and demand shown in our preferred stock offering," Richard Syron, the company's chairman and CEO, said in a statement Thursday..."

Ok, it is realy that kind of demand we see in the IPO's: ask 5 thousands to get 1 thousand...

"...We are raising capital in this offering to enable Freddie Mac to continue fulfilling our important housing mission through the current market environment, and better position us to effectively manage the company going forward.""

To fulfill their important housing mission through the current market environment??? Humm... Maybe some of the raised cash will be to fulfill some holes in some items in their balance sheet... Not a bad idea, hein...? :-D

Better position to effectively manage the company going forward? Of course, with a nasty balance sheet it would be hard to go forward...!

...

"McLean, Va.-based Freddie Mac (Charts, Fortune 500) also said Tuesday it was slicing its quarterly dividend in half, to 25 cents, as it anticipates additional losses from mortgages gone sour - its first dividend cut since it became a public company in 1989."

They put this "Buy more stocks and get a sliced dividend" infos. on the offer's prospect/documentation?

"Typically, preferred stock pays a higher dividend than common stock and carries a stronger claim on the assets of a company if it goes into bankruptcy. "

What a relief!

...

"Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs are managing the sale of preferred stock, which the company applied to list on the New York Stock Exchange."

Those who tell you "Ask 10 thousands, get 1 thousand!"... :-)

quarta-feira, 28 de novembro de 2007

CANDLESTICKS: COMO PODEM AJUDAR A IDENTIFICAR FUNDOS DE MÉDIO PRAZO



Esse padrão de candlesticks - válido tanto para fundos como para topos - representa uma possível inversão de médio ou longo prazo da tendência anterior. A sua fiabilidade é média. Em termos de sentimentos, é um indicador de indecisão da parte dos traders sobre a acção ou índice em causa.

No entanto, a High Wave é mais significativa e com maiores probabilidades em topos do que em fundos.

quinta-feira, 15 de novembro de 2007

MEANWHILE, LET'S SEE THE ELLIOT COUNTING FOR THE EUR/USD CROSS



WA and WB are completed, we only need to know where WC is going to take us in the long term: I think that a 1.7 EUR/USD is on the table, but let's wait.
For now, I think a strong correction is due and will likely be the w4 wave of this WC!

IT'S SEEMS LIKE THE PATTERN IS REALLY WORKING



Dax Speculator didn't short the market because he never traded the Ascending Broadening Wedge (if you didn't see it, you can go to: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_5fOiYT6rcio/Rw-gCMqBtEI/AAAAAAAAAEI/TLQgqBUdAzk/s1600-h/SX5E-STX_w_12OUT_BWAsc.png) pattern before. So Dax Speculator wasn't confortable we it.

The pattern is being activated in the DAX (see the chart above) but the DAX has some imperfections and Dax Speculator, like a fox, waits for more and clearer signs of Mr. Market... ;-)

quinta-feira, 8 de novembro de 2007

A INCERTEZA DO CURTO PRAZO

É um facto que hoje em dia muitos investidores preferem o chamado day trading para investirem na bolsa em produtos alavancados tais como os futuros, opções, CFD's, .... Mas também é um facto que apenas 5% ou menos singram neste segmento de alto risco. Quanto a mim, é mais difícil o curto prazo do que o médio ou longo prazo pelo simples facto de que o curto prazo pode ser influenciado por múltiplos factores, aos quais o médio e longo prazo não estão expostos.

Se calhar, os day traders terão estranhado o meu post de ontem sobre o fecho de curtos. E o curto prazo daria de facto - pelo fecho de ontem dos EUA e consequente abertura de hoje dos mercados Europeus - para fechar os curtos mais abaixo e com ganhos maiores (incluindo as comissões, o trade curto foi afinal ligeiramente perdedor: -50.66€).

No entanto Dax Speculator borrifa-se completamente para o curto prazo e concentra-se no médio e longo prazo, que são os time frames que Dax Speculator domina. E nesses time frames, o potencial está agora claramente para cima, embora com muito mais volatilidade daqui para a frente.

quarta-feira, 7 de novembro de 2007

THE DAX BULLS ARE GETTING STRONGER

Briefly, it seems like the bulls want some more speculative upside, so "we" aren't going to be bad guys and "we" are going to let them play a little more in the fantasy world... ;-)

So Dax Speculator has closed his short position on the Dax with a loss. No big deal! Losses are a part of this business, they will always exist and, as long as they are controlled, experimented speculators are comfortable with them. :-)

Cheers,

Dax Speculator

terça-feira, 6 de novembro de 2007

2008: THE DOLLAR SHORT SQEEZE YEAR



I will be brief about this subject as there is no much to say:

a) Bullish divergences in the ROC and MACD Histogram on the daily chart;
b) Too many bears in the same wood;
c) Just a feelling.

Best Regards,

Dax Speculator

segunda-feira, 5 de novembro de 2007

NEW EARNINGS ESTIMATES FOR MERRILL LYNCH...




...as predicted in October 24th (you can see it here), just before the earnings were posted to the markets, those previous estimates were far too much optimistic, especially the Q4 rebound from the Q3 estimated losses.

Now we've got new estimates but I still think there are too good to be true, especially the suposed recovering from a negative Q3 2.85 EPS to a positive Q4 1.13 EPS. Let's wait and see what happens...

quinta-feira, 25 de outubro de 2007

LIDER NOS 6000!!


Para quem não leu ou não se lembra, em Setembro, escrevi que o líder destes últimos trimestres nas bolsas deveria ir aos 6000 pontos (ver aqui). E não é que foi mesmo! Até passou e foi testar os 6400 pontos. No entanto agora está mais difícil e a apontar para outros rumos menos bons (ver gráfico)...

quarta-feira, 24 de outubro de 2007

DO YOU REALLY WANT TO BE HERE (NO COMMENTS)?


THE STUPIDITY OF FORECASTS



How are they going to do this violent turnaround? I wouldn't be surprised to see some recovering at Q4 2007 but a violent turnaround like this one is, in my opinion, very unlikely.

As an example, from the low o.44 Q1 2006 EPS to almost 4 times 1.63 Q2 2006 EPS, it is a great move! But now "analysts" are especting MER to go from a negative -0.45 Q3 2007 EPS to and outstanding 1.93 Q4 2007 EPS.

Investors should know that bad news and corresponding bad earnings don't simply disappear in just a quarter.

I'm curious about what are going to be the real Q3 2007 EPS for Merrill Lynch...

terça-feira, 23 de outubro de 2007

SOME MORE REVEALING CANDLES FOR THE NEARBY FUTURE

This one is in the NDX (Nasdaq 100) and look likes an huge Bearish Engulfing:


A CHANGE IN DAX SPECULATOR BEHAVIOUR AND COMMENTS

Dax Speculator won't comment anymore about its own positions in the markets to avoid influencing other traders.

Each trader must be responsible for its own trades and take the gains or losses at the end.

The purpose of this blog is to comment the market in its Fundamental or Technical aspects that
I consider relevant in each moment.

Having clarified this, let me show you some more candle pictures that I consider revealing:





Yours waiting for the candles to further whisper,

Dax Speculator

segunda-feira, 22 de outubro de 2007

THE BUBBLE MAN

Eis um vídeo em homenagem ao grande Alan, um homem dantes adorado mas agora detestado...

sexta-feira, 12 de outubro de 2007

BROADENING WEDGE, ASCENDING IN THE EUROSTOXX 50?

This is a not very successful pattern to trade but it is still worth paying attention to it, specially to the possibility of a partial rise. Here's the chart:




Let's wait and see what happens: it is only safe to short this if the partial rise confirms itself with the market heading down...

I won't post any message next week since I will be in Lisbon.


Good trades,

Dax Speculator

quarta-feira, 10 de outubro de 2007

DAX SPECULATOR IS STILL SHORT...

...on the DAX but will stop&reverse at a close above 8103!

I still think we are going to close that gap at 7575-7629, I just don't know when and, because of that I must protect myself against losses...

quarta-feira, 3 de outubro de 2007

GAPS

Hoje escrevo apenas para deixar a minha opinião sobre o gap do dia 19 de Setembro:

Quanto a mim não é um Breakaway Gap mas sim um Common Gap. E porquê? Porque falta o mais importante, o volume.

Eis o aspecto de um Breakaway Gap:





terça-feira, 2 de outubro de 2007

DAX INDEX SPECULATOR SABE QUE O MERCADO É SOBERANO...

...e tem sempre razão. Por isso Dax Index Speculator - doravante apenas Dax Speculator - respeita sempre o mercado (houve tempos de rebeldia em que isso nem sempre acontecia :-), esteja este a favor ou contra Dax Speculator. Posto isso e tendo em consideração a clara perda de Momentum por parte do mercado, Dax Speculator não executa o stop que estava fixado em 7890 e espera até ao final da semana para tomar uma decisão com muita frieza relativamente a este trade que é, para já, obviamente perdedor.

Dax Speculator sabia que este trade era de alto risco visto ser claramente contra uma tendência que dura já 4 anos e que, apesar de demonstrar alguns sinais preocupantes, continua por enquanto a aguentar-se.

Dax Speculator salienta o "por enquanto" porque sabe que infelizmente o mercado pagará muito caro por, mais uma vez, ter cometido demasiados excessos. A crise do crédito e do mercado imobiliário é apenas uma parte na neve da gigantesca montanha de excessos que o mercado - vulgo Wall Street - cometeu durante estes últimos 4-5 anos: falta saber qual a quantidade de neve que está nas Private Equities, nos Hedge Funds e, eventualmente, nalgum banco de grande dimensão...

segunda-feira, 1 de outubro de 2007

DAX INDEX SPECULATOR ESPERA PELO DAX...

...que anda que nem uma barata tonta à procura de um rumo. E claro que quem lhe dá o rumo é a dupla NDX/SPX, quem mais haveria de ser?

Ora, o SPX poderá ir à resistência 1490-1499 eo NDX poderá testar a resistência 2010-2030.

sexta-feira, 28 de setembro de 2007

FUNDOS ALAVANCADOS "QUANT" BASEADOS NA FICÇÃO CIENTÍFICA!?

Eis um video provocador (em todos os aspectos ;-) sobre estes fundos de "investimento" altamente alavancados:

 

quinta-feira, 27 de setembro de 2007

DAX INDEX SPECULATOR SHORTS THE CRAZY DAX!

At the end of this crazy session, Dax Index Speculator realizes that he must short this DAX with a stop loss set at 7890.

Here is the 3 hours justification chart with a ugliest (than the previous) Shooting Star:



It is a highly speculative and risky trade!

GOODBYE STRANGER

É desta forma que me despeço do DAX esta semana...


terça-feira, 25 de setembro de 2007

CANDLESTICKS: COMO PODEM AJUDAR A IDENTIFICAR TOPOS DE CURTO PRAZO

Eis novamente o gráfico de 120 minutos (2 horas) do $DAX-XET:



O que aconteceu na 6ª feira ao fim do dia? Tivemos um sinal de cansaço por parte do mercado com uma "Shooting Star" a aparecer no topo do range de negociação. Há quem defenda que a abertura tem de ser em gap up para este padrão ser válido. O Steve Nison não acha que isso seja necessário para que o padrão seja válido e eu acredito mais nele do que nos outros! ;-)

segunda-feira, 24 de setembro de 2007

IS THE DAX GETTING TIRED?

I think it is, at least for now. See the 120 minutes chart (courtesy of http://www.futuresource.com/) and take your own conclusions:



The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is starting to signal a correction in the 120 minutes time frame and the momentum is also looking toppy.

Conclusion: we may be headed for a close of the gap between 7588 and 7628 in the next few days. Stay tuned!

quinta-feira, 20 de setembro de 2007

ELLIOT THEORY SINCE 1974 UNTIL TODAY

Here's what I beleave is the correct counting of the Ralph Nelson Elliot waves since the end of the last bear market (1968-1974):


POSTS EM INGLÊS

Irei começar a escrever algumas mensagens em Inglês e eventualmente até em Françês, o que tornará o blog mais global.



De qualquer forma, se houver alguma dificuldade com alguma dessas 2 linguas, poderão sempre comentá-lo que estarei sempre disponível para, de certa forma, traduzir a ideia para Português. O ideal seria conseguir por o blog em 2 linguas mas ainda não consegui perceber como se faz isso e também não sei se terei tempo para isso.



Bons negócios,



Dax Speculator, kicking the sub-prime and impacient bears away from the gold!

FISICA NOS MERCADOS

Penso que teremos direito - e queremos tudo a que temos direito - a uma ligeira retracção nos próximos dias visto o movimento ter sido muito rápido: o mercado é fiel à Terceira Lei de Newton (http://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terceira_Lei_de_Newton) - também conhecida por Lei da Acção e Reacção - que diz resumidamente e sem entrar demasiadamente na física que para cada acção há sempre uma reação oposta e de igual intensidade.

Neste caso os bulls exerceram na 3ª e 4ª feira (dias 18 e 19 de Setembro) uma força de intensidade Fb1 sobre os mercados, estando estes agora a reagir a essa força, exercendo uma força -Fb1 sobre os bulls. Veremos agora se os bulls têm massa suficiente para conseguirem suportar essa força -Fb1 e exercer outra força Fb2!

quarta-feira, 19 de setembro de 2007

THE DAY AFTER THE FED

Yersteday we've got a typic "don't trade what everybody knows" day:

Everybody knows now about the sub-prime problems, what a majority don't know is what is going to be done about it!

terça-feira, 18 de setembro de 2007

THE FED'S DECISIVE DAY

I'm writing this post in English (not Portuguese as usual) because today is a very important day for investors all around the world.

Globalization is increasing its importance in the financial markets and so are troubles. Depending of the kind of crisis, some has affected badly the global stock markets (remember the Great Depression in 1929, the Energy Embargo of 1973, the 1987 crash, the Russian financial crisis in 1998 and the Internet bubble burst in 2000).

Today we have the real estate bubble burst in the US - and its related sub-prime mortgages problems - that may be spreading around the world.

Now, the important question is:

Will the FED be able to do something that will make the difference?

I think they will try at least but I don't know (nobody knows) if they will succeed...

The only antidote that may work is to cut rates. Between 50 and 100 basis points. The markets today seems to believe that they will cut the rates: the US 3-Mo Treasury Yield closed at 4.15% yesterday, a 15% drop since the beginning of the crisis. So, the market is already discounting a 75 basis points rate cut! See the chart Here. If they do so, the stock market will soar like in precedent interventions like in 1998!

sexta-feira, 7 de setembro de 2007

ELLIOT: PERSPECTIVA MAIS ALARGADA


Para uma melhor compreensão do momento actual dos mercados financeiros, eis (ver gráfico) uma perspectiva ainda mais alargada do gigantesco padrão correctivo A-B-C cuja onda WB eu desdobrei ontem. Esta WB, onde esteremos actualmente, é para já flat: as sub-ondas wA, wB e wC têm comprimentos semelhantes. Aquilo que eu prevejo pelo desdobramento das sub-ondas desta WB e, por sua vez, da sua wB é que esta WB venha a ser Irregular: a sub-onda wB fará novo máximo.

quinta-feira, 6 de setembro de 2007

ELLIOT: TARGET PARA O S&P500 = [1750;1800]




Tendo em conta a contagem de Elliot no S&P500 (ver "Perspectiva de longo prazo" em 27 de Agosto de 2007), se esta estiver correcta, a w5 da wc da WB aponta para valores entre os 1750 e 1800 USD com maior probabilidade de acontecer entre Fevereiro e Março de 2008.

Estrapolando esses valores para o DAX, teríamos o animal na zona dos 8700 no final do 1º trimestre de 2008...

segunda-feira, 3 de setembro de 2007

terça-feira, 28 de agosto de 2007

O LIDER


Cá está o presumível líder da banda desde finais de 2006, o "SHANGHAI STOCK EXCHANGE A SHARES", que irá muito provavelmente acima dos 6000... :-D

segunda-feira, 27 de agosto de 2007

O OBJECTIVO DO BLOG / THE BLOG'S PURPOSE

Objectivos:

O objectivo deste blog é especular sobre o possível sentido dos mercados de capitais Europeus e Americanos? Para cima ou para baixo? E porquê??

Purpose:

The main purpose of this blog is to speculate about where the markets indexes are headed? Up or Down? And why??