quarta-feira, 24 de outubro de 2007

THE STUPIDITY OF FORECASTS



How are they going to do this violent turnaround? I wouldn't be surprised to see some recovering at Q4 2007 but a violent turnaround like this one is, in my opinion, very unlikely.

As an example, from the low o.44 Q1 2006 EPS to almost 4 times 1.63 Q2 2006 EPS, it is a great move! But now "analysts" are especting MER to go from a negative -0.45 Q3 2007 EPS to and outstanding 1.93 Q4 2007 EPS.

Investors should know that bad news and corresponding bad earnings don't simply disappear in just a quarter.

I'm curious about what are going to be the real Q3 2007 EPS for Merrill Lynch...