quinta-feira, 20 de dezembro de 2007


Yes, the title is somewhat to catch up your attention because your are going to need a lot of it in the next quarters.

Some messy stuffs are starting to show up in the markets but I'm much more concerned about those that are still to come. I just don't know - a few folks may know - from where it is going to come.

But I have some suspects, stay tuned... ;-)

sexta-feira, 14 de dezembro de 2007


Estava a ler umas notícias passadas sobre o Deutsche Bank e no fim pensei cá para mim: ao nível a que a complaciência chegou!

Vejamos a notícia:

"Lucro do Deutsche Bank cresceu 31% no terceiro trimestre

O maior banco alemão anunciou hoje que no terceiro trimestre deste ano o seu resultado líquido atingiu os 1,6 mil milhões de euros, mais 31% do que um ano antes.

Cristina Barreto

Em comunicado, o Deutsche Bank explica que este resultado reflecte o impacto positivo de benefícios fiscais proporcionado por items extraordinários. Pelo que o lucro antes de impostos baixou 19% para os 1,4 mil milhões de euros, face a igual período do ano passado.

Humm, receitas fiscais. Deve ser aquilo a que chamam em Inglês, "deferred taxes"...

"As receitas da instituição alemã totalizaram os 5,1 mil milhões de euros no trimestre em análise, o que representa uma redução de 20% relativamente ao exercício de 2006.

O Deutsche Bank informou também, em linha com as expectativas avançadas inicialmente, perdas de 2,16 mil milhões de euros relacionadas com a crise no mercado de crédito de alto risco nos Estados Unidos ('subprime').

O presidente do Conselho de Administração do banco alemão, Dr. Josef Ackermann, refere no comunicado que "o terceiro trimestre de 2007 foi um período de excepcional turbulência nos mercados financeiros. Na banca de investimento, a nossa performance foi significativamente afectada por este cenário, mas no entanto, o comportamento estável dos nossos negócios foi bom e repetimos os ganhos de alguns dos nossos investimentos recentes".

Como tal, estou satisfeito a anunciar que, apesar de tudo, os nossos negócios atingiram um resultado satisfatório neste trimestre", acrescenta no documento.

Mas era aqui que eu queria chegar.

LOL, excepcional turbulência? Uma dica para o Sr. Ackermann:

Ó Ackermann, em termos de turbulência ainda não viste nada homem! Olha que a procissão ainda vai no adro...

quinta-feira, 6 de dezembro de 2007


"No Bubble-Bursting in 2006
By : Jim Woodard

No bubble-bursting is in sight for real estate sales in this new year of 2006. This is now expected to be the second best year in history for residential property sales, according to analysts at the National Association of Realtors. “Home sales are coming down from the mountain peak, but they will level-out at a high plateau – a plateau that is higher than previous peaks in the housing cycle,” said David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist. “This transition to a more normal and balanced market is a good thing.”

Even though mortgage rates have edged downward in recent weeks, they will generally trend upward during the year, probably to about 6.6 percent for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage, NAR predicts. Existing home sales, expected to reach about 7.1 million units in 2005 (when final figures are available), will probably decline a bit in 2006 – perhaps by about 3.7 percent to a volume of 6.84 million units. New home sales will be about 1.29 million units in 2005 and will probably drop by 4.8 percent to 1.23 million units this year. That would make this year the second best on record for new home sales.

“The housing market still is fundamentally healthy,” said Dave Wilson, president of the National Association of Home Builders. “Many builders sense some tapering off of buyer demand because of resistance to high prices and rising interest rates, and many companies have begun offering certain incentives in order to maintain their sales and production.” Confidence of home builders during December slid from its summer peak, yet remained well within the positive range, according to NAHB.

Thomas Stevens, NAR president, made this comment: “Housing has always been the soundest investment for most families. As the old saying goes, homeownership beats the heck out of a drawer full of rent receipts.

Copyright 2006 TheLowQuote"

Crise Imobilária?


"Publication: Mortgage Banking
Publication Date: 01-JUN-05
Delivery: Immediate Online Access
Full Article:
THE GOOD NEWS: THERE IS NO NATIONAL housing price bubble. On that much leading housing economists agreed--but that is where the consensus ended.

The bad news: Experts at the Washington. D.C.-based National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB's) Spring Construction Forecast Conference in May in Washington, D.C., could not come together on ruling out the possibility of a sudden, dramatic fall in home prices in some pockets of the country.

While talk of an impending house price bubble has been overblown for the last several years while the housing market posted record sales and starts, new concern about the direction of home prices dominated talk among NAHB's panel of experts throughout this recent conference.

The inability to pinpoint where all of the current housing demand is coming from, coupled with reports from builders of residential real estate speculators, is "disquieting," said David Seiders. NAHB chief economist.

Seiders related reports from some of the nation's larger home builders, who, he said, are concerned about speculators scooping up large numbers of homes and the potential impact on the local real estate market should investors decide to unload those homes en masse.

One cannot automatically conclude that a price bubble is imminent or probable because of the presence of speculators in the real estate market. But it could suggest the sizable increase in home prices relative to incomes is based on a dramatic increase in investment activity, said Thomas Lawler, senior vice president of risk policy at Fannie Mae.

"You cannot say we're going to have a [housing price] bust. You cannot say that," said Lawler. "You could say the probability of a bust occurring in certain parts of the country has risen sharply." In fact, he said, traditional data does not allow for a definitive forecasting of a housing bubble until after the fact.

"It is absolutely true that conditions in the housing market in parts of the country, not most of the country, mirror past conditions that preceded busts," said Lawler. "But in almost all cases, those busts were associated with a regional economic downturn."

In addition to increased speculative behavior, Lawler noted concern about similar patterns within the last year that were also visible during the late 1980s, before the last real estate bust.

Lawler's concerns include unrealistically high consumer expectations for home price appreciation; creative, riskier financing to surmount home affordability concerns; and much higher adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share than interest rates and spreads would have suggested.

James Glassman, managing director and senior policy strategist with J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., New York, noted most housing markets in the country are not seeing the type of real-estate boom that buyers and sellers on the coasts are experiencing.

Glassman pointed out California as a real estate market "with issues," as well as Las Vegas and South Florida as markets with potential problems on the horizon.

Glassman disputed the notion of excessive home prices, citing a lack of evidence in income and real estate trends. Instead, he said, prices are catching up to a "reasonable benchmark of real rates of return" following a lag in home prices throughout the 1990s.

"Not everybody is seeing the same exact thing as you are in the really hot real-estate markets," he said. "Worry if you want to. I would take most worries with a grain of salt, and just get back to business."--C.W."

terça-feira, 4 de dezembro de 2007

The bull lobby is working to catch you!

After reading the following CNNMoney article (Here's the full article: http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/29/news/companies/bc.apfn.freddiemac.stock.ap/index.htm), I cannot pass without making some comments about it:

"Big mortgage finance company Freddie Mac on Thursday set a price of $25 a share for the $6 billion in special stock it is selling to help shore up its finances amid strong investor demand for the stock."

LOL, strong investor demand for this loosing money machine?

"The nation's No. 2 buyer and guarantor of home loans lost more than $2 billion in the third quarter as more borrowers missed payments on their home loans. Freddie Mac also said it had decided, in light of the robust demand for its special cash-raising offering, to make all 240 million shares of preferred stock not convertible to common stock."

Read again. Robust demand, strong demand...? This must be that kind of demand we see in the IPO's: ask 10 thousands shares to get 1 thousand shares, they use to say...

And with the greater percentage of ARM mortgages set to reset in the first half of 2008, I would rather expect those losses to narrow...


"It was five times oversubscribed, according to the company."We are very pleased by the strong investor interest and demand shown in our preferred stock offering," Richard Syron, the company's chairman and CEO, said in a statement Thursday..."

Ok, it is realy that kind of demand we see in the IPO's: ask 5 thousands to get 1 thousand...

"...We are raising capital in this offering to enable Freddie Mac to continue fulfilling our important housing mission through the current market environment, and better position us to effectively manage the company going forward.""

To fulfill their important housing mission through the current market environment??? Humm... Maybe some of the raised cash will be to fulfill some holes in some items in their balance sheet... Not a bad idea, hein...? :-D

Better position to effectively manage the company going forward? Of course, with a nasty balance sheet it would be hard to go forward...!


"McLean, Va.-based Freddie Mac (Charts, Fortune 500) also said Tuesday it was slicing its quarterly dividend in half, to 25 cents, as it anticipates additional losses from mortgages gone sour - its first dividend cut since it became a public company in 1989."

They put this "Buy more stocks and get a sliced dividend" infos. on the offer's prospect/documentation?

"Typically, preferred stock pays a higher dividend than common stock and carries a stronger claim on the assets of a company if it goes into bankruptcy. "

What a relief!


"Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs are managing the sale of preferred stock, which the company applied to list on the New York Stock Exchange."

Those who tell you "Ask 10 thousands, get 1 thousand!"... :-)