sexta-feira, 29 de agosto de 2008


Following my "RESSALTO NO EURO / COMMODITIES?" message, I will try to assess how far this rebound in Gold will go. I'm considerating this recent movement only as a rebound because the trend has changed and it is now headed to the downside.

In the last 2 technical analysis I've published about this precious metal (see "AT THE GOLDCORP (GG)" and "ANALISE TECNICA DO OURO"), the targets for both patterns (a Broadening Wedge, Ascending and a Head & Shoulders), were, respectively, 778 and 780. Gold made a minimum of 777.7 in the past August 15 and then started the current thecnical rebound.

How far will it go? I think the most likely value is the 859 area, corresponding to the 32.8% retracement of Fibonacci. However, it is also possible to go up to 884, the 50% of Fibonacci. Above those levels, we have the 61.% and 76.4% Fibonacci but, frankly, I do not believe it will get there. Here is the chart:

Have a good week-end,

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