terça-feira, 15 de janeiro de 2008

THE U.S. DOLLAR

The majority of traders argue that the US Dollar fundamentals are, actually, mostly bearish. That is true. But, Dax Speculator foresees some changes in those fundamentals with the potential to reverse the prevailing trend of the last 6 years. Those changes are:

1- A US recession will trigger a violent sell-off in the commodity bull since the demand side of the equation will vanish;

2- The real estate bubble bursted and so has the liquidity and credit bubbles. With so many bubbles bursted or still bursting, inflation will probably slow down which is also bearish for commodities and, thus, bullish for the US Dollar;

3- The trade deficit - and so the US Dollar - will benefit from a slowdown in the US, at least in the begining, since US consumer spending will be the first to slow (there are strong factors indicating it may be already slowing) followed by exports in the next quarters;

4- Finaly, the BOE will need to follow the FED in cutting rates to the [3%;3.5%] range and the ECB will be forced to follow them (historicaly the ECB follows the FED with a 6 to 9 months delay).

Best Regards,

Dax Speculator