quarta-feira, 4 de junho de 2008

Who's going to fail?

At the end of last year I considered to post a message in which I was trying to guess what would be the first major bank to fail (to bankrupt or be bailed out).

I did not published the message because it seemed to me too soon to make that kind of "puzzles" with the information I had at the time. Either way my list was at the time, in descending order of probability of bankruptcy, the following:

Bank of America
Wachovia
Merrill Lynch
Morgan Stanley
Goldman Sachs
Bear Sterns
HSBC
UBS
Deutsche Bank
BNP Paribas
BCP


Bear Sterns failed and, despite appearing on my list, it was not the one I considered as the most likely at the time.

After considering further information about some of these institutions and others, I think it is appropriate to update the list. I took off the list those institutions that seems to me stronger like Goldman Sach, HSBC, BNP Paribas and Bear Sterns that already went bankrupt. I added others that seems to me now more vulnerable like Citibank (which continues to sell credit cards in shopping malls), Lehman Brothers (for which they have been a series of bad news / rumors lately) and Société General who was recently involved in the famous "Jerôme Kerviel" issue. UBS, Deutsche Bank and BCP rose on the list because I consider them weaker now than at the end of last year. Here is the updated list:

Citibank
Lehman Brothers
Bank of America
Wachovia
UBS
Deutsche Bank
BCP
Merrill Lynch
Morgan Stanley
Société General


I want to draw attention to the fact that this list is only a list of probabilities, nothing more. Hence, it isn't any recommendation to buy or sell those or any assets but merely a reminder for those who are eventually invested or thinking of investing some of those companies.

Good investments,

Dax Speculator