sexta-feira, 11 de abril de 2008

LONG TERM TOP IN EURO (ENGLISH)?

Today I will continue and complete yesterday's Euro index technical analysis that was written in Portuguese (I will later launch a poll about what is the better/prefered way to translate my posts to English). This is a currency that has broken values that were unthinkable 4 or 5 years ago.

I'm focusing on technical analysis because the fundamental analysis has already been addressed relatively to the US Dollar - which is inversely related to the Euro - "THE US DOLLAR".

Let's do it!

It is my beleave that the Euro index (as well as the majority of the high yield currencies) is forming a rounded top. Only time will confirm the importance of this rounded top in the long term but in the medium term we have 2 bearish reversal Candlesticks patterns to confirm it (see chart here):
  1. A Bearish Evening Doji Star whose reliability is high and that, despite have 2 doji is valid (can have up to 3 dojis);
  2. A Bearish Harami whose reliability is medium.

But there is more bearish signs that the upside move is over (see chart):

  1. A falling volume since mid March;
  2. A Rising Wedge also forming since mid March.




Good trades,

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